New South Australian Early Commercialisation Fund (SAECF)
On Friday the State Government announce the re-branding and relaunch of a $10M venture South Australian Early Commercialisation Fund (SAECF)
It’s the End of the world as we know it! (Not a US election post)
It’s the end of the world as we know it! (Not a US election story)
A confluence of events is going to fundamentally change the way IT products and services are consumed by business and the people who deliver it over the next 18 months.
The half life of technology has been decreasing at such a rapid rate that now one can expect a fundamental change in technology, and, therefore business delivery not once in one’s lifetime nor even once in ones career but even across one job. By way of example the fastest method of transmitting a wri tten document for business purposes was for 350 years by mail, then by telegraph 150 years then by Telex for 60, them by fax for 30 then by email 15 and now instant messaging and groupware make the underlying technology moot.
The delivery of IT infrastructure, once the domain of engineers and knowledgeable IT types putting tin on the ground, has now moved to a service delivery model where it is no longer a technological decision but a business decision based mostly on access levels and service level agreements. This year sees the launch of various desktop as a service initiatives which I would argue means within 18 months there will not be an IT decision that can’t be framed solely as a business decision around cost versus service levels. We are now used yo buying Software as a Service (Saas) and even Infrastructure as a Service (Iaas). The Australian government now even certifies various cloud based infrastructure for use by government agencies. To make this move to everything as a service (EaaS) complete Microsoft Continuum, by the time version 3 is released, will make the movement of desktop work-loads between local devices and the cloud-based infrastructure totally seamless and invisible to users.
Thirdly, there has been a fundamental change in the way business to business commerce is conducted and a change in the sales cycle. Whereas historically the sales cycle and flow of information has been controlled by the seller, now it is usual for a buyer to have 80% of the information they need prior to contacting any seller. This means to be successful, sellers now need to be top of mind to a potential buyer before they have any idea that a selling cycle has commenced. This has led to the rise in importance of social media channels, event-based marketing and most importantly (although sometimes overlooked) the ability of organisations and the people in them to generate long-standing mutually beneficial relationships as the keys to sales success. Greater success will come to those who have the best sales automation and relationship management.
Fourthly, we have the continued vertical integration, by all the major vendors, so that all the usual line of business applications are available in one stack, in the cloud, sold as a service. Whether its office productivity, groupware, customer management, accounting and resource management, project management and planning, an enterprises entire data set and operations are available with the scale and convenience never before seen.
This integration becomes important when we examine the next factor, which is the application of artificial intelligence and machine learning to the lines of business in this vertically integrated stack. Already a couple of the major CRM vendors provide the option to apply machine learning tools that will suggest on sells for particular customers based on observed usage patterns. The real advantages will come into play as increasing amounts of data become available in each IT vendor is stack. We will see continued consolidation until there are only three or four major players in the game, as a vital path to success will be the capture and analysis of as much data as possible.
What does this all mean when looked at as a whole? Businesses will be looking to purchase their line of business applications in a flexible as needs basis, able to scale up and down as short-term and long-term business cycles dictate, that they will not be tied to any technology or set of technologies and that greater success will come to those businesses that can apply automation, artificial intelligence and machine learning across their business operations and business data.
For example enterprises that rely say on a legacy CRM system on a piece of hardware under the accountants desk will be no match for an equally sized company that has three users all using cloud-based solutions, that automates social media marketing by looking at clues in potential customers social media feeds, targets them for an event invitation, then using business intelligence gained across the whole sector and available through the cloud-based CRM is able to target a phone call at the precise time that the customer is most open to making a buying decision, with a list of subjects that should be talked about.
The launch of Microsoft dynamics 365 Suite in November this year makes this scenario inevitable for most businesses within 18 months. Other vendor’s will be following quickly with their own integrated vertical stacks of line of business applications backed by machine learning and artificial intelligence as those who don’t will not be able to offer value to client bases they may have dominated for the last 30 years.
To me this makes inevitable the demise of the standalone IT consultant and consultancy businesses. What are now IT decisions or cost centre decisions will simply be a business decision based on a set of contracted services against service availability against price. Technical considerations will be at least two or three levels beyond end-user customers, mainly be made by people who run data centres and applications in them. The IT guy or gal for most businesses will now be the business analyst and relationship guy or gal and where not organic to a business will probably be part of a full-service consultancy based around an accountancy practice. The implications for both the IT industry accountancy practices, and management consulting firms are both huge and fast approaching at a rate that many will not believe until they are overrun. We are in a game of musical chairs as various IT vendor’s align themselves with various line of business applications to provide complete stacks to their customers and is single service IT companies and accounting practices start seeking partnerships with each other. You wouldn’t want to be the one left standing with orphan line of business applications or being a single service practitioner when the music stops.
It is the end of the world as we know it. I’m lucky enough to have a foot in both the tech and business camps, so as the song says, I feel fine but I do think the rapid acceleration of the rate of change in the way technology is applied to business is going to leave a lot of people gasping.
What do you think?
The End is Near – well not quite.
Do you want to come live, work and or invest in a place that has a climate like southern California, 27km of unbroken white sand beach, three world class wine regions within and hour and a bit drive, where a bad rush hour lasts 20 minutes and the airport is 10 minutes away from downtown?
How about a region that is in Lonely Planet Guides to 5 regions in he world? Lets throw in the worlds second largest Fringe Festival, (and the huge Festival and arts culture that goes with it) and a spirit of innovation and inventiveness that has brought you WiFi, the photocopier, the Black Box flight recorders, Wine in a box and Sunscreen amongst many other things.
If any of this is of interest to you right now – just ask me how!!! PS. We have universal healthcare and a thriving capitalist market based economy too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-25/lonely-planet-ranks-sa-in-top-5-regions-in-the-world/7964920
http://www.migration.sa.gov.au/
Another report, stupid commentary, a few fact sheets and more questions!
Perhaps everyone who does not understand how the National Energy Market works might want to read this AMEO fact sheet. (And I am pointedly looking at politicians, journalists, and talkback callers)
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/1234_aemo2.pdf
AN INTRODUCTION TO AUSTRALIA’S NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET
I know this point has been made before but this quote is germane to understanding the context of all the other reports…
“AEMO’s highest priority as power system and market operator of the NEM is the management of power system security. Security of electricity supply is a measure of the power system’s capacity to continue operating within defined technical limits despite the disconnection of a major power system element, such as a generator or interconnector. The maintenance of power system security ensures the power system is operated in a way that does not overload or damage any part of it or risk overload or damage after a credible event.”
The media watch article that links to that fact sheet is here http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3596892.htm and contains and interesting quote from a 2012 report “…where has the brown coal electricity been going? Out of Victoria, to NSW and SA, where it has been displacing higher cost black coal generation in both States. — Pitt & Sherry Report, September, 2012” Now I’m not going to commit a Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy and say that Pt Augusta shutting down was inevitable but there is a line of investigation there.
The updated AEMO report is here. https://www.aemo.com.au/Media-Centre/-/media/9027D5FB69294D408E4089249F38A36D.ashx
And some other info on the market is here. https://www.aemo.com.au/~/link.aspx?_id=C9A103FE3CD34BEDB8113744F28DB932&_z=z
My questions that still remain are
Why did the still as yet unnamed System Restart Ancillary Service (SRAS) generators fail? (there is some analysis provided but root causes are still unknown). If they had operated as they were being paid to do (they get fees to be on standby) would parts of the blackout been averted, and would the restoration time have been reduced? “SRAS are reserved for contingency situations in which there has been a major supply disruption or where the electrical system must be restarted.” (emphasis is mine)
How much of the generation tripping out was due to grid instability and how much due to sudden demand loss (due to population or industrial centres being disconnect from supply) . Who’s responsibility was it to specify the ” ‘voltage ride-through’ settings” the wind farms were using prior to connection to the NEM? Were the settings at the time within non-credible contingency? (I think the answer is yes to the last but some input who understands this stuff better than I do would be helpful)
How do some of the geographical considerations of the NEM (longest in the world), SA transmission network (long and skinny rather than an interconnected grid), and concentration of load (with only 3-5 “large” centers of demand (demand which is needed to stabilise any power network) in the state) affect supply, protection and reliability considerations.
Can the UFLS trigger points be set is such a way as to take the interconnectors into account and therefore be “more” ready to stabilise the grid when there is a failure at either end of the interconnect.
Three out of three generator failures in Pt Lincoln? Were they being paid to be on standby?
Were there any lessons to be learned from a very similar event in San Diago in 2011? If so were they applied to the NEM?
http://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/September-2011-Southwest-Blackout-Event.aspx
“On May 1, 2012, FERC and NERC issued a joint report on the September 8, 2011 Southwest Blackout Event. On the afternoon of September 8, 2011, an 11-minute system disturbance occurred in the Pacific Southwest, leading to cascading outages and leaving approximately 2.7 million customers without power. The outages affected parts of Arizona, southern California, and Baja California, Mexico. All of the San Diego area lost power, with nearly 1.5 million customers losing power, some for up to 12 hours. The disturbance occurred near rush hour, on a business day, snarling traffic for hours. Schools and businesses closed, some flights and public transportation were disrupted, water and sewage pumping stations lost power, and beaches were closed due to sewage spills. Millions went without air conditioning on a hot day.”
Would Coal fired, or solar thermal available at PT Augusta have made any difference this time? Leaving aside transmission faults, would a solar or coal plant at Pt Augusta make any difference if wind is unavailable due to wind speed (over or under).
Given the geographic and density issues that make our system a little unique what is going to be the best way to stabilsie the grid – now, in 5 years – in 15 years? How should these different scenarios inform investment and remediation decisions that are going to made in light of the failure in September?
Was there an Australian or other standard at the time the transmission towers were built. What was it? Did the towers meet that standard? Is there a different standard in effect now? Should there be? If so how is the transmission network going to be upgraded and who pays for it? (and unless the towers were built after 1996 I’m not going to ask if there was Chinese steel used)
How many Politicians, Editors, and Commentators and going to have Pauline Hansonesque moment now and claim they were right all along as they flip their position from It’s all winds fault due to intermittency or high wind speed to it’s all winds fault because the setting were wrong?
Finally for those so inclined a slightly more technical reference.
http://www.smartpowergeneration.com/the-book-power-supply-challenges/chapter-2-balancing-the-electricity-supply-in-case-of-calamities
Phil aka the man in the hat. 19/10/16